Update: Following this post, Yoshimura Suzuki announced that Stewart is now in fact coming to race in Australia.

With the news that Yoshimura Suzuki’s James Stewart has reneged on his plans to race the AUS-X Open at Sydney’s Allphones Arena in two weeks time, the chances of one of our domestic racers standing on top of the box on either of the two nights of racing has drastically improved. In light of the plot twist, we rate the winning chances of some of the SX1 class front-runners as it currently stands.

Image: Jeff Crow.

Rider: Chad Reed
Rating: 9/10
Rundown: The biggest benefactor of the news that JS7 has pulled the pin on his date with Australia’s best is his long-time rival and our own GOAT, Chad Reed. Reedy’s chances of victory have almost doubled from 50 percent to now about 90 percent. There are some question-marks surrounding TwoTwo, however. His speed at the Monster Energy Cup several weeks ago wasn’t anything to shout about (9-16-8 for 10th overall), he’s rocking new blue colours but still has yet to officially announce where he’ll end up for 2016, and the unpredictable nature of tight indoor racing can throw all sorts of spanners in the works. On top of that Dan Reardon and Matt Moss are on a tear at the moment and we have a sneaking suspicion the gap between Reed and the rest isn’t going to be as wide as everyone thinks. We predict there will still be a gap though.

Rider: Adam Monea
Rating: 7/10
Rundown: The fascinating thing with tight indoor racing is that anything can – and usually does – happen. It’s that unpredictable element that draws us like moths to a flame. NPS Monster Energy Kawasaki’s Adam Monea has a knack of always putting himself in great positions during a race and capitalising on the errors of others. He put that skill to good use at Jimboomba where he finished second in the main event to series points leader Dan Reardon and then was well and truly in the mix at Wayville after grabbing the holeshot and spent the entire race scrapping with Reardon, Moss, Mosig and Brett Metcalfe. If Monz can get out front and show a clean pair of heels early on, he has a good chance of snatching victory.

Rider: Matt Moss
Rating: 8/10
Rundown: 2015 has gone about as far from the game plan as it can get for defending champion Matt Moss. Plagued with bad luck and injuries, the decision from his team to pull the plug on their outfit next year and now embroiled in a deep, personal battle with the one guy he loathes with a passion (Reardon), Mossy has all the incentive in the world to get himself back on top of the podium at Sydney. On top of that, the two Sydney nights are his home rounds and he’ll want to peg back some of the points he’s given up to Reardon over the first half of the championship. By no means is his campaign on the ropes, but finishing ahead of Reardon from here on out is a must if he wants to retain his SX1 title. Mossy doesn’t need much more motivation than that.

Image: Jeff Crow.

Rider: Kade Mosig
Rating: 7/10
Rundown: I honestly feel a little bit for Kade Mosig. In his own right he’s having a damn good supercross season but his results have been overshadowed by his CDR Yamaha teammate Reardon’s impressive return to form. Mosig has yet to score a podium finish (his results over three rounds are 5-4-4) but he set the fastest lap time of the entire night at Wayville and has looked strong and consistent. We get the feeling it’s only a matter of time before Mosig scores a podium and possibly a race win. It’d be some tasty icing on the cake to do that at the most anticipated race of the year at Sydney.

Rider: Dan Reardon
Rating: 8/10
Rundown: Did you imagine 12 months ago we’d be talking about Reardon as a series points leader in the Australian Supercross Championship? We sure as hell didn’t! Yet here we are, halfway through the 2015 series and Reardon is the man of the moment. His pace and form so far this year have been phenomenal as we witness the Dan of old come back to the fore. He’s relaxed, confident, constantly smiling and blisteringly fast. As a result we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Reardon has the minerals to give Reedy a serious run for his money at Homebush (remember back in 2007 when Reardon was last on form and battled with Reed at Raymond Terrace?). It’s shaping up to be a scintillating battle and one that, if Reardon wins, could springboard his career back to the States.