Can you believe we’re almost halfway through this American outdoor series? Five rounds down and seven to go over on this side of the ocean and both classes are shaping up with some clear divisions as in – those that can win if things go right and those that can’t.

Of course, weather factors are always an issue but in the 450MX class there are two riders that have separated themselves as the top dogs. It’s going to be really, really tough for anyone to win a race this summer if you’re not named Ryan Villopoto or Ryan Dungey. Those two riders have captured all ten motos so far (eight for RV two for RD) and have a nice position as riders 1A and 1B.

The Red Bull KTM rider Dungey hasn’t quite been on RV’s level but when mistakes (Muddy Creek) or bad starts (Budds Creek) happen, Dungey can win races. In fact, as of this typing we just saw Dungey’s best ride of the year in the second moto at Budds Creek and it has to give him some hope. Monster Energy Kawasaki’s Villopoto got into second and Dungey was still putting time on him. Who knows, maybe in the 14 motos that are left, we’ll see a points battle out of this yet.

After those two it’s a potpourri of riders that have stood on the box. Honda Muscle Milk’s Trey Canard being the latest at Budds Creek and we’ve also seen Pro Circuit’s Tyla Rattray, James Stewart, Honda Muscle Milk’s Justin Barcia all finish with a third overall this season and Barcia leads the “Non Ryan’s” group with two podiums in the five races.

Although not that strong at Budds Creek, Barcia’s probably been a tad better than the other riders but Canard, Motoconcepts’ Mike Alessi (two third place moto finishes) are right there.

Can a mistake-free Ryan Villopoto be beaten? Image: Simon Cudby.

Yeah, that’s right- I didn’t say Yoshimura Suzuki’s James Stewart. It’s a weird deal, we’ve reached a tipping point with the man that was once either win or crash and many, many times the fastest man on the planet. Stewart, one of only two riders with a perfect 24-0 outdoor season, came out at Hangtown with a nice 3-3 ride and looked like he wanted to build on it. Instead, it’s been worse and worse each weekend and at Budds his younger brother Malcolm, only five rides into his 450 career, caught and passed him both motos while James lay on the ground.

Privateer Phil Nicoletti of the N-Fab Yamaha team has been solid as has Rockstar Suzuki’s Ryan Sipes as they battle to get into the best of the rest category. All in all the 450MX class in America is as deep as it’s been in years. Riders like Barcia, Alessi and Canard cannot climb the ladder and assume a rightful place inside the top five if they don’t get a start.

At one point at High Point two weeks ago, eight of the riders running third to tenth were in the same second. And this was halfway through the moto! Where you start is more important than ever this summer and that’s why Mike Alessi could be a factor going forward here as he seems to have his starts figured out judging by his two holeshots at Budds Creek. Of course, if you’re Villopoto or Dungey, those rules about bad starts don’t apply as they’re simply on another level right now.

In the 250’s it’s been the same five riders in the top five overall at all of the first four rounds and thankfully, GEICO Honda’s Wil Hahn knocked his teammate Zach Osborne out at Budds with an impressive first race back from injury fifth overall. It’s truly been a question of whether or not Eli Tomac can get a start or not. We’re not saying he’d be winning if he got starts but certainly he’d be in the mix each moto.

Sometimes, much to Eli’s frustration, he doesn’t get off the gate the way he’d like and he spends the entire thirty minutes plus two fighting to the front. Of course at Budds Creek, Tomac put in a breathtaking ride from 13th all the way to first in one of the best rides of the year indoors or out but it’s unreasonable to expect that from Tomac each week. Still, in the second moto we saw magic happen from the kid from Colorado. The way he caught and passed Blake Baggett and Darryn Durham was remarkable.

Eli Tomac could be dangerous if he puts together strong starts. Image: Simon Cudby.

Meanwhile the two World Champion Red Bull KTM riders Kenny Roczen and Marvin Musquin were spectacular in the first moto at Budds (as they have been all summer) but didn’t have much for the second moto with the heat and humidity of Maryland. The Frenchman Musquin flat out admitted on the podium he was tired and the German was reportedly sick before the race. Both riders had their worst finishes of the year so far and as the temperature goes up, it will be interesting to see if the two Europeans can stay strong.

Still Tomac is nine points back of Roczen and twelve up on Musquin with seven races to go. The defending champion, Monster Pro Circuit’s Blake Baggett, had his best race of the year at Budds with 1-2 finishes for the overall. Baggett’s wrist has been bothering him and the week off appeared to really help him out. Perhaps us media folks writing him off was a bit premature. His first moto charge to first was so reminiscent of last summer, it was ridiculous.

The 250’s have had some excellent racing this summer and another GP refugee named Zach Osborne has been a real surprise as he’s right there to win a moto if he can fix a few small things. Of course it looks like Hahn’s got the right stuff to do well and rookies like Star Yamaha’s Cooper Webb and PC’s Adam Cianciarulo will be able to get inside the top five as well.

The racing over here has been fantastic each and every moto with the world’s best racers lining up each weekend. Yeah the 450MX title seems to be a forgone conclusion but Dungey was very good at Budds and the battle after that is fierce. In the 250’s it truly is up for grabs among five riders and it will be interesting to see who can emerge with the title as the weather gets hotter and the tracks get tougher.
Onto the stretch run we go!